Trump’s Return Threatens Global Climate Progress: Shocking COP29 Predictions Revealed

Uncertainty Looms Over COP29

The potential return of a former president casts a shadow over vital UN climate talks. Countries are hesitant to finalize their stances as the US election approaches, impacting the progress of global agreements.

Observers note that the upcoming November summit, starting just days after the election, faces a unique challenge. The decision between two candidates could significantly alter the course of climate negotiations.

Efforts to forge global consensus on climate action and environmental protections are at a standstill. The uncertainty is particularly noticeable in discussions about a treaty to combat plastic pollution.

There are concerns that a change in US leadership could undo progress, especially given historical precedents of withdrawing from international agreements. The stakes are high for the environment.

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Impact on Climate Finance

This year’s negotiations aim to secure funds for poorer nations to fight climate change. However, many governments are cautious about committing to specific amounts until the US election outcome is clear.

Mohamed Adow, a leading climate campaigner, highlights that this cautious approach is hindering critical long-term commitments from wealthy countries needed for clean energy and adaptation.

Developed nations are accused of being inward-looking and lacking seriousness in their financial commitments. This frustration is echoed by many negotiators who see the need for immediate action.

Ali Mohamed, representing African negotiators, emphasizes the urgency regardless of US political changes. He insists climate issues persist beyond elections, demanding continuous effort and commitment.

Slow Progress in Pre-COP29 Sessions

The lead-up to COP29, to be held in Azerbaijan, has been notably slow. Participants report a lack of agreement on crucial definitions and financial commitments.

Despite pressing deadlines, there is still no consensus on what constitutes “climate finance,” the amount required, or the responsible parties for funding.

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Historically obligated wealthy donors like the US and EU are reluctant to specify figures, suggesting emerging economies like China should also contribute significantly.

Tom Evans from E3G notes that many governments are hedging their bets due to the looming US election, complicating the negotiation dynamics.

Divisions and Future Prospects

Significant divisions remain between rich and poor countries on who should bear the costs of climate change. The European Union’s hesitation to commit financially is partly due to US election uncertainties.

• Developing nations demand over $1 trillion annually, a significant increase from current pledges.
• Potential election outcomes could impact global financial support for climate initiatives.
• Trump’s potential return raises concerns about reduced funding for climate efforts and international cooperation.

Linda Kalcher of Strategic Perspectives warns that committing to numbers now could increase pressure to adhere to those commitments, adding to the tension.

Despite historical underfunding by the US, a Trump victory wouldn’t necessarily halt a deal but could leave donors feeling vulnerable without assured support. The complex dynamics highlight the need for collective global leadership in climate action.

Li Shuo from the Asia Society Policy Institute predicts that meaningful decisions will only emerge post-election, with the current period being one of incremental progress at best.

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