The Emotional Tug-of-War to Save Our Planet: Can We Still Make It?

Urgent Climate Action

The United Nations Development Programme has unveiled a bold initiative to rally nations towards more robust climate commitments, aiming to keep global temperatures from rising above 1.5 degrees Celsius. This new phase, named Climate Promise 2025, focuses on enhancing the carbon-cutting promises that countries will update next year under the Paris Agreement.

Achim Steiner, the UNDP administrator, emphasized that the next two years are crucial for correcting our global course to avoid the worst effects of climate change. However, scientists caution that achieving the 1.5-degree target is becoming increasingly unlikely due to the slow pace of current emission reductions.

There’s a growing disparity between the optimistic public messaging from world leaders and the somber warnings from scientists. Experts argue that the overshoot of the 1.5-degree target is almost certain, raising questions on how leaders should communicate this reality.

Oliver Geden, a climate policy expert, suggests that accepting an overshoot might allow policymakers to explore ways to reverse it, such as using technologies for negative emissions. However, these technologies are still largely unproven and remain an uncertain solution.

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Facing the Inevitable

Even if overshoot becomes unavoidable, experts like Laura Pereira insist that the world must continue to cut emissions rapidly to stay as close to the 1.5-degree target as possible. She stresses that the actions required for 1.5 degrees are the same as those for 2 degrees, but immediate and rapid action could make the difference.

Some worry that acknowledging an inevitable overshoot could dampen the momentum of global climate strategies. Pereira warns that giving up could halt the necessary hard discussions about critical changes needed to address climate change.

Global emissions need to peak by 2025 and decrease by 42 percent by 2030 to keep warming below 1.5 degrees, according to the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 is also essential.

Nico Wunderling, a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, notes that while it’s extremely ambitious, transformative action is necessary to achieve the 1.5-degree goal without significant overshoot. Immediate and radical changes are required to stay within the carbon budget.

Science and Reality

The reality is stark: even a temporary overshoot of the 1.5-degree target could lead to irreversible consequences like sea-level rise and species extinction. Every fraction of a degree of warming exacerbates these impacts, making it crucial to limit any overshoot as much as possible.

Scientists have been sounding the alarm for years, but their warnings have become more urgent. In 2022, the IPCC’s report highlighted the near inevitability of overshooting 1.5 degrees, stressing the need for immediate and transformative action.

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The U.N. report in 2022 declared that current carbon-cutting pledges are insufficient, with no credible pathway to 1.5 degrees. The 2023 emissions gap report echoed this, emphasizing the need for dramatic emission reductions within the next six years.

As the 1.5-degree threshold approaches, the debate on how to communicate this looming reality will intensify. The focus must now be on minimizing the magnitude and duration of any overshoot while striving to avoid it altogether.

Keeping Hope Alive

Despite the grim outlook, U.N. messaging remains steadfast on staying below 1.5 degrees. The new Climate Promise initiative aims to align national pledges with the IPCC’s requirements, focusing on ambition, progress, and inclusivity.

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized the urgency, stating that humanity’s current carbon output will soon push the planet past the 1.5-degree limit. Next year’s national climate plans are vital to averting this disaster.

Cassie Flynn from the UNDP noted that while the world has made progress since the Paris Agreement, more ambitious national contributions could further reduce global warming trajectories. However, achieving this would require an unprecedented overhaul of the global economy.

The goal of staying under 1.5 degrees remains alive until an overshoot occurs. Pereira maintains that fundamental changes can always alter the course, keeping hope alive for a more sustainable future.

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