Surprising Truths About Air Conditioning: How It Could Derail Climate Goals by 2050!

The Necessity of Air Conditioning

This year, 3.8 billion people worldwide faced extreme heat, with 47,000 deaths in Europe alone due to heat-related causes. Air conditioning is no longer a luxury; it is essential for health as heat stress is the top weather-related killer. Blood moves to the skin for cooling, risking organ failure when temperatures rise above 90°F.

Heat can trigger seizures and heart issues in those with existing conditions. Pregnant women exposed to high temperatures risk preterm birth and congenital issues for their babies. Extreme heat affects cognitive functions and worsens air pollution, impacting children, the elderly, and outdoor workers the most.

High temperatures cut productivity and GDP. In India, productivity drops by 2% for every 3.6°F increase, costing the economy $32 billion over 30 years. Workers get fatigued, crop yields fall, and energy costs surge, all hitting the economy hard.

Urban areas, hotter due to the heat-island effect, are expanding rapidly. By 2050, 1.6 billion people in cities will face summer temperatures averaging 95°F. This highlights the urgent need for widespread cooling solutions as urban and global populations grow.

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Rising Air Conditioning Use

Air conditioner sales soar with sustained temperatures above 86°F, growing 16% weekly. The world currently has 2 billion units, expected to reach 5.6 billion by 2050. This surge is driven by historically cooler regions now needing AC and rising incomes in developing countries.

As incomes in countries like the Philippines surpass $10,000, more people buy air conditioners. Urban populations, now at 56%, will more than double by 2050, with cities getting hotter, increasing the need for cooling.

List of contributing factors:

• Income growth in developing countries
• Urban heat-island effect
• Expanding urban populations

By mid-century, up to 1,000 cities could experience summer highs of 95°F, indicating a looming spike in cooling demands worldwide.

Explosive growth in AI and cloud computing adds to cooling needs. Data centers, using up to 40% of energy for cooling, contribute more to emissions than aviation. New methods like Microsoft’s fluid cooling and undersea data centers aim to curb this energy use.

Environmental Justice and Cooling

Extreme heat hits the global south and vulnerable communities hardest, making air conditioning a necessity and a potential human right. However, cooling access is wealth-dependent. While 90% of US and Japanese homes have AC, only 8% in the hottest regions do.

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Poor and marginalized US communities, often lacking green infrastructure, suffer most. Redlined areas have 23% tree canopy compared to 43% in affluent areas, making them hotter. These areas need more investment in green infrastructure to reduce heat exposure.

The energy transition is uneven, with federal incentives for renewable energy not reaching the most vulnerable households. Poor communities can’t afford the initial costs, leaving them with higher energy burdens as energy costs rise.

Cooling accounts for 10% of global electricity use, with demand rising sharply in coal-reliant countries. Cooling’s CO2 emissions, equivalent to 238 million cars annually, and HFC refrigerants add to the climate crisis despite efforts to phase them out by 2025.

Moving Towards Net-Zero

To meet net-zero goals by 2050, cooling emissions must drop to 40% of current levels by 2030. Although efficiency improvements have cut emissions, a threefold acceleration is needed. Adoption of high-efficiency AC units and passive cooling designs are crucial.

Traditional ACs overcool to dehumidify, wasting energy. Innovations like Transaera’s separate dehumidification or cSNAP’s refrigerant-free cooling aim to improve efficiency. The Global Cooling Prize incentivizes cutting-edge, climate-friendly cooling solutions.

Even with efficient cooling, energy demand will rise. Poorer communities, less able to afford efficient units, will suffer most. Experts stress the importance of passive cooling designs in urban planning to minimize cooling needs.

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Governments can enforce energy codes and standards, offer incentives for efficient ACs, and invest in renewable energy. Heat action plans and public education can prepare communities for rising temperatures and encourage energy-saving behaviors like higher thermostat settings.