Shocking New Study: Midwest Faces Unprecedented Water Wars as Climate Change Escalates, Experts Warn

Climate Change’s Grip on Midwest Water

The merging of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers creates a striking visual of two powerful waterways initially resisting unity. This natural spectacle underscores the significant role of the Missouri River, which irrigates crops, cools power plants, and provides drinking water for millions.

Missouri’s abundant water resources are a growing concern for state Rep. Jamie Burger. He fears an influx of demands from western states and is pushing for legislation to ban most water exports from the state. Last session, his bill passed the House but stalled in the Senate.

Burger’s concerns are echoed by many, including Burke Griggs, a law professor who predicts increased legal battles over water as climate change exacerbates scarcity. This could lead to more frequent and intense courtroom dramas.

Doug Kluck, NOAA’s central region climate services director, highlights the worsening swings between weather extremes due to climate change. This scenario complicates water management and raises the stakes for states like Missouri and Iowa.

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Midwest Water Projects Under Scrutiny

Upriver of St. Louis, projects like the Red River Valley Water Supply in North Dakota are already drawing from the Missouri River. This project aims to secure water for central and eastern North Dakota, though it faces significant opposition.

Missouri sued federal agencies and North Dakota to block the project, arguing it violated environmental and water laws. Despite this, the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in favor of the project’s continuation, setting a precedent for future disputes.

Some experts believe the Midwest could soon resemble the Colorado River Basin, known for its contentious water disputes. “The Missouri River is still kind of the wild wild west,” said Duane DeKrey, highlighting the increasing legal challenges.

Key reasons for the disputes include:

• Growing demand from expanding communities
• Climate change impacting water availability
• Legal battles over interstate water rights

Tribal Nations and Water Rights

The Midwest’s water disputes also involve tribal nations with historic treaty rights. Doug CrowGhost, water resources director for the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe, emphasizes the tribes’ larger water rights compared to states, complicating the legal landscape.

Recent changes under Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland have empowered tribes to create their own water permitting codes. CrowGhost anticipates increased efforts to protect these rights as other regions grow drier.

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“Our forefathers saw in ceremonies that if we don’t protect our land, if we don’t protect our water, we’re not going to have a people,” CrowGhost said. This belief drives the tribes’ determination to safeguard their water resources.

The Great Plains Tribal Water Alliance, chaired by CrowGhost, represents tribes along the Missouri River. The alliance is preparing to defend their water rights against increasing external pressures.

Legal Frameworks and Solutions

Rhett Larson, a water law professor, outlines three ways to resolve water disputes: Supreme Court lawsuits, congressional laws, and state or tribal compacts. The Colorado River Basin compact is a high-profile example, with current rules set to expire in 2026.

Unlike the Colorado, the Missouri and Mississippi rivers lack comprehensive compacts. Some believe a formal agreement is necessary to manage future conflicts. However, Larson doubts the feasibility of such compacts due to the complexity and size of these basins.

Griggs, the law professor, insists on a science-led approach for future negotiations. He stresses the importance of including historically excluded groups, such as Native American tribes, in these discussions to ensure equitable and sustainable water allocation.

Despite the challenges, Larson sees a potential silver lining: “Usually water scarcity is actually a catalyst for cooperation more than conflict,” he said, suggesting that necessity might drive collaborative solutions.

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