New Report Unveils Shocking Reality: Gigatonne CO2 Storage by 2050 May Be a Pipe Dream!

Introduction to CO2 Storage Challenges

Addressing climate change is crucial, and the IPCC suggests that large-scale geological CO2 storage will play a key role. Projections indicate an annual injection rate of more than 6 GtCO2 by mid-century, a figure comparable to the current hydrocarbon industry. However, the feasibility of this scale is under scrutiny.

Integrated assessment models assume abundant geological CO2 storage resources and widespread carbon capture and storage (CCS) usage. These models often estimate global storage resources between 10,000 – 30,000 Gt. CCS is considered vital for reducing emissions in certain industrial sectors, making these assumptions critical.

Despite ambitious projections, CCS deployment has lagged behind. Of the 149 projects proposed by 2020, aiming to store 130 Mt of CO2 annually, only around 30% were realized. Factors like project cost and technology readiness contribute to these shortfalls, raising questions about the models’ accuracy.

Geographic, geological, and techno-economic factors pose significant constraints on CO2 storage. Integrated assessment models use various constraints, such as global storage potential values and supply cost curves, but many lack subsurface-specific constraints. This discrepancy can lead to vastly different deployment projections.

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Current Deployment and Future Projections

Our analysis reveals substantial differences between projected and feasible storage rates. For instance, projections from the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report often exceed 16 GtCO2 per year by 2050. However, our models suggest that such high rates are unrealistic given current technological and geological constraints.

Several key factors influence the feasibility of CO2 storage:

• Storage resource availability
• Growth rate of storage deployment
• Geological constraints in different regions

For example, China’s projected storage rates are often overestimated. While models predict up to 6.7 GtCO2 per year, our analysis suggests that sustaining such growth rates is unlikely due to geological and engineering limitations.

Conversely, projections for Western nations like the USA and Canada align more closely with feasible rates. This indicates a need to recalibrate integrated assessment models to better reflect regional capabilities and constraints.

Regional Contributions to Global Storage

Our models show that global storage rates are heavily influenced by contributions from six key regions: the USA, China, the UK, the EU, Canada, and the Middle East. For instance, to achieve a global storage rate of 13 GtCO2 per year, the USA would need to account for nearly 70% of this total.

When regional constraints are applied, such as limiting the USA’s storage to 1 GtCO2 per year as per government roadmaps, the global storage rate drops dramatically. This highlights the critical role of policy and regional capabilities in achieving global targets.

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Limiting storage rates in key regions like the EU, the UK, and China further impacts global feasibility. For example, if China’s storage is constrained to 0.216 GtCO2 per year, the global rate cannot exceed 5 GtCO2 per year by 2050.

Ultimately, the feasibility of global CO2 storage depends on realistic regional contributions and the alignment of integrated assessment models with ground realities. Without this, projections risk being overly optimistic and unattainable.

The Path Forward

To ensure feasible CO2 storage, projections must incorporate more granular data and realistic growth rates. Historical analogues from the hydrocarbon industry provide valuable insights but must be adapted for CO2 storage contexts. This includes considering geological and engineering constraints unique to CO2 storage.

Growth models, while useful for long-term projections, need to be complemented with more detailed cost supply curves and injectivity models. This hybrid approach can offer a more accurate picture of year-to-year fluctuations and long-term trends in CO2 storage deployment.

By refining our models and incorporating empirical constraints, we can better assess the feasibility of CO2 storage on a global scale. This will enable more informed policy decisions and align projections with the practical realities of CO2 storage development.

Ultimately, achieving gigatonne-scale CO2 storage by mid-century requires a balanced approach that combines ambitious targets with realistic assessments of regional capabilities and technological constraints.

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