Disrupting Climate Unity: How Gaza Conflict Shattered a Crucial Middle East Green Deal

The Collapse of a Promising Climate Agreement

Just before an international climate summit in Dubai, a major climate deal between Middle Eastern nations fell apart. For two years, Israel and Jordan had been negotiating the exchange of vital resources: renewable energy and drinking water. The proposed deal involved Israel sending billions of gallons of water to Jordan in exchange for electricity from a new 600-megawatt solar farm in Jordan’s desert.

Financially backed by the United Arab Emirates and diplomatically supported by the United States, Project Prosperity symbolized regional cooperation. Talks intensified in mid-2023, aiming to finalize the deal at the United Nations’ annual climate conference, COP28, in December. However, the unexpected attack on Israel by Hamas fighters on October 7 disrupted everything.

Israel’s military response has resulted in extensive casualties and a blockade on Gaza, leading to warnings of famine. The conflict has also created turmoil in Jordan, where the government, historically an ally of Israel, has faced public pressure due to its citizens’ Palestinian heritage.

Amidst protests in Amman, Jordan’s foreign minister declared the deal null, accelerating plans for a $3.2 billion desalination project. These events highlight how the Gaza war is affecting both geopolitics and climate policy in the Middle East.

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Impact on the Region’s Climate Politics

Before October 7, Israel was emerging as a hub for clean technologies, planning to send a significant delegation to COP28. Project Prosperity showcased the Arab world’s growing willingness to collaborate with Israel on climate issues, offering a potential path for constructive cooperation in a divided region.

However, the conflict has deepened opposition among Palestinian and Jordanian environmentalists. Even before the war, many resisted engaging with Israel without resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict. A Palestinian official questioned, “Why collaborate with someone controlling our resources?”

Yet, some scientists and environmentalists in the region remain committed to cross-border cooperation. One Palestinian environmentalist, citing decades of unresolved conflict, believes climate change could be a starting point for peace. “The only way is to come to the same table,” he said.

Water politics in the Holy Land are complex. Historical competition over the Jordan River basin has led to conflicts and territorial occupations. Israel’s control of water resources in occupied territories has created stark disparities, with Palestinians experiencing severe water shortages.

Challenges and Adaptation Strategies

In the 1990s, treaties attempted to divide water resources among Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian Liberation Organization. These agreements left Israel with control over 80 percent of the West Bank’s water, while Jordan relied on Israel for a share of the Jordan River’s flow.

Jordan now faces a perpetual water crisis, with residential consumption ranging from 12 to 20 gallons per person daily. Population growth and refugee influxes have doubled Jordan’s population, straining water supplies. Climate change exacerbates the situation, pushing rivers and groundwater to exhaustion.

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Jordanian utilities ration water by area, allotting weekly supplies that families must stretch. This structural undersupply has led the government to consider every possible water source, domestic and foreign. A domestic desalination project is now seen as a more secure option than relying on Israel.

Despite technical arguments for cooperation, critics argue that such projects entrench existing inequalities. Inès Abdel Razek, a Palestinian rights advocate, contends that Israel’s water surplus is built on the dispossession of Palestinian water. Initiatives like Project Prosperity, she argues, only serve to promote Israeli and UAE interests.

Prospects for Future Cooperation

Despite the collapse of Project Prosperity, some believe in the potential for future cooperation. An Israeli resource ecologist recounts how a Palestinian friend checked on his well-being during the conflict, reaffirming the value of their collaborative efforts.

EcoPeace Middle East proposed the Green Blue Deal, inspired by post-WWII European partnerships. This initiative aimed to enhance security through renewable energy and water trade, suggesting that environmental cooperation could build trust and peace in the region.

However, the Gaza conflict has halted many joint projects and intensified anti-normalization sentiments. Collaborative efforts are now seen as politically risky, with many choosing to avoid public attention.

Yet, some remain hopeful. A young Palestinian environmentalist at the Arava Institute for Environmental Studies believes that small changes by many people could collectively lead to significant positive impacts. “Romanticization of peace keeps me going,” he said.

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Conclusion: Hope Amidst Uncertainty

While the Gaza conflict has disrupted a landmark climate deal, the passion for cross-border cooperation remains alive. Environmentalists on both sides continue to advocate for collaborative solutions, believing that addressing climate change could pave the way for peace.

Efforts like the Green Blue Deal demonstrate the potential for environmental initiatives to foster trust and cooperation. However, achieving this requires overcoming deep-seated political and social barriers. The journey is challenging, but the vision of a cooperative Middle East keeps many motivated.

As regional tensions persist, the future of climate cooperation in the Middle East remains uncertain. Yet, the commitment to finding common ground through environmental action offers a glimmer of hope in a time of conflict.

Ultimately, the path to peace and environmental sustainability in the Middle East will depend on the willingness of all parties to engage in dialogue and collaboration, despite the challenges. The stakes are high, but the potential rewards are even greater.